Prediction and management of household solid waste generation during COVID-19 pandemic in Bandung City using system dynamics model

WHO declared a novel coronavirus in humans as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on February 2020, and Indonesia as well as Bandung City have been suffering from COVID-19 since the first case in March, 2020. Currently, the outbreak of COVID-19 has occurred for more than a year. The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the environment, like the enhancement of household solid waste as a result of work and school from home policies to decrease the rates of COVID-19 cases. This study aimed to predict the amount of household solid waste generation and analyze the waste management during COVID-19 in Bandung City using a system dynamics model. Data for model input was obtained from questionnaire to 200 respondents from Bandung spread across the sub-districts. The results revealed that the household solid waste generation was increased by 1.3 to 3.8% compared to the year before the COVID-19 pandemic. The composition of household solid waste was dominated by food and plastic waste, which have increased to 76.43% and 25.81%, respectively. The system dynamics model has predicted the household waste generation from three management scenarios for 30 years of model simulation. Scenario I: the household solid waste was totally managed by a local sanitary agency (existing condition); Scenario II: each household manage their waste by recycling; and Scenario III: the utilization of a local waste bank to manage the waste. The scenario III showed the most effective waste management to reduce the amount of household solid waste generation up to 24% by using waste bank. This scenario can be applied for more prolonged landfill operations up to 17 years.