Quantifying and analysing the stages of online information dissemination in different enterprise emergencies: The idea of system cybernetics

Previous research on information dissemination in emergencies focus on prediction of the volume via abundant models. However, most of these models did not specify different stages of emergencies, and hence making it difficult for public relations (PR) practitioner to make decisions based on needs of each stage in today’s rapid changing media environments. In this study, we introduce the idea of system cybernetics and the method of system identification into information dissemination perspective. Based on the proposed information accumulation probability distribution continuity (IAPDC) model, we provide a quantitative division of the information accumulation process. The durations of each stage and the time points that each stage begins are stated and defined with a quantitative calculation method. Using empirical data from 83 emergencies in 2016 and 2017 covering Weibo, WeChat Platforms and over 20,000 web media, we verify the effectiveness of this method. Next, we use simulation analysis to demonstrate what effects of parameters have on the dissemination process and how do changes on different stages affect the process. Moreover, we also demonstrate the effects of emergencies’ attributes on the information dissemination process and on each stage. Our study complements the gaps in existing communication discipline and provides insight for PR practitioner when dealing with enterprise emergencies.