Can the aviation industry achieve carbon emission reduction and revenue growth simultaneously under the CNG2020 strategy? An empirical study with 25 benchmarking airlines

The CNG2020 strategy proposed in 2016 has directly impacted the global aviation industry, and the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic has brought the global aviation industry to a standstill. This paper calculates the Pollution Abatement Costs (PAC) index and regulated profits of the global aviation industry by establishing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. Then, considering the airlines’ different recovery times from COVID-19, we predict the data of 25 international benchmark airlines from 2021 to 2027 based on the actual data during 2012–2019. The regulated profits can help judge whether airlines can achieve a win-win situation of carbon emission reduction and revenue growth in the future recovery process. We have some findings: 1. Air France-KLM has the maximum regulated profits, while EasyJet has the minimal regulated gains. 2. The setting of route conditions impacts whether airlines can achieve a win-win situation. •We select the optimal path for global aviation industry from 30 set paths under the CNG2020 strategy.•The paths contain the recovery time from COVID-19, carbon peak time and development speed after recovery.•We discuss the possibility of the top 25 airlines to achieve carbon reduction and revenue growth simultaneously.•Eight airlines can achieve carbon reduction and revenue growth simultaneously.