A simplified integrated framework for predicting the economic impacts of feedstock variations in a catalytic fast pyrolysis conversion process

Feedstock attributes of lignocellulosic biomass, such as particle size, compositional makeup, and moisture content, can vary substantially even within pre‐processed materials and have a significant effect on conversion in fast pyrolysis‐based processes. However, the economic impacts of these attributes are not well understood. To address this, biomass deconstruction phenomena captured with a versatile particle‐scale simulation were linked to techno‐economic impacts via reduced‐order models. Parametric analysis of the particle‐scale model, which was validated using literature data, was used in combination with multiple linear regression models to develop correlations between feedstock attributes and yields of pyrolysis oil, gas, and char. Yields were then correlated with the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) using a techno‐economic model, bridging the gap between physics‐based biomass conversion simulations and predictions of MFSP for a catalytic fast‐pyrolysis process. Empirical correlations derived from the literature regarding the impact of mineral matter (ash) on oil yield were also considered. The model correlations deployed in the integrated framework capture the impacts of variation in feedstock attributes on the MFSP. Variations in ash were shown to have the biggest impact, varying MFSP by −13%/+22% due to catalytic effects and lower relative amounts of convertible lignocellulosic material. It was also found that, if ash can be controlled to low levels, the increased extractives in forest residues can help compensate for some yield losses associated with increased ash. Other inputs considered (particle size, moisture content, and reactor temperature) had relatively negligible effects on process economics within the ranges analyzed considering particle‐scale effects alone. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd