Brazil’s Iguaçu National Park threatened by illegal activities: predicting consequences of proposed downgrading and road construction

The spectacularly biodiverse Atlantic Forest of South America has been reduced to fragmented remnants. The largest remaining inland fragment is protected by national parks on either side of the iconic Iguassu Falls on the border between Brazil and Argentina. Biodiversity in the parks has been under pressure from illegal activities such as commercial hunting, fishing and extraction of palm hearts. A proposed road through Brazil’s Igua\c{c}u National Park now further threatens the area’s biodiversity by further dividing the forest fragment and by increasing access by illegal actors. Here we analyze spatial data on illegal activities and develop a niche-based model to predict the impact of the proposed Caminho-do-Colono road. The model shows the significant increases that this road would provoke in susceptibility to illegal activities such as fishing (median 0.009 to 0.101), palm-heart extraction (median 0.087 to 0.260) and poaching (median 0.324 to 0.334). The road proposal includes downgrading the protected status of a portion of the park, which reflects a worldwide pattern of downsizing, downgrading and degazetting protected areas that is particularly evident in Brazil.