Application of DPSIR and Tobit Models in Assessing Freshwater Ecosystems: The Case of Lake Malombe, Malawi

Inland freshwater shallow lake ecosystem degradation is indistinctly intertwined with human-induced factors and climate variability. Changes in climate and human-induced factors significantly influence the state of lake ecosystems. This study provides evidence of the driver, pressure, state, impact, and response (DPSIR) indicators for freshwater lake ecosystem dynamics, taking Lake Malombe in Malawi as a case study. We used the DPSIR framework and Tobit model to achieve the study’s objectives. The study’s findings indicate that top-down processes gradually erode Lake Malombe’s ecosystem state. The lake resilience is falling away from its natural state due to increasing rates of drivers, pressures, and impacts, indicating the lake ecosystem’s deterioration. The study shows that demographic, socio–economic, climatic drivers, pressures, state, and responses significantly (p < 0.05) influenced the lake ecosystem’s resilience. The study suggests that substantial freshwater ecosystem management under the current scenario requires a long-term, robust, and sustainable management plan. The findings from this study provide a roadmap for short-term and long-term practical policy-focused responses, particularly in implementing a freshwater ecosystem restoration programs in Malawi and Africa more broadly.