Heterogeneous Effects of Urban Sprawl on Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from China

Identifying the effects of urban sprawl on urban development is of strategic importance. This study takes 285 prefecture-level and above cities in China as research samples and empirically analyzes the heterogeneous impact of urban sprawl on economic development from 2009 to 2018. Results indicate the threshold effect of urban sprawl on economic development. That is, moderate urban sprawl has a significantly positive influence on economic development, whereas excessive urban sprawl has a significantly negative impact on economic development. The empirical analysis also identifies heterogeneities in the effects of urban sprawl on economic development. Compared with the sprawls of small- and medium-sized cities, those of large cities have a greater negative impact on economic development. Compared with the sprawls of cities dominated by the tertiary industry, those of cities dominated by the secondary industry have a greater negative impact on economic development. Findings of this study have important policy implications for scientific urban expansion, reasonable urban spatial layout, and sustainable urban economic development.