The Exposure Geography of Italian Local Economies to Major Foreign Ones. Evidences from a Multiscale Spatial Experiment Based on Granularity

An original approach to spatial economic analysis is here proposed with reference to Italy. A granularity approach is applied on microdata related to a panel of firms that have been active during 2007–2017. At each firm is therefore associated a coefficient of exposure to the economic cycle of four major foreign economies: Germany, UK, USA, and China. This information is then linked to territorial level and analyzed at two geographical scales: regional and sub-regional. The autocorrelation spatial analysis carried out lead us to appreciate geography of exposure to positive or negative shocks coming from each of the four foreign economies. This geography is very different from the administrative one and can represent a tool for planning future strategies of economic investments and territorial planning.