Pension Incentives and Retirement Planning in Rural China: Evidence for the New Rural Pension Scheme

This paper estimates the impact of social pension programs on retirement planning in rural China, focusing on the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS). Retirement planning is defined as an individual's intention to detach from the workforce at a given age instead of working for as long as physically possible. We also consider an individual's self‐reported health characteristics and subjective life expectancy. Overall, we find that the NRPS does not incentivize younger workers (those under 60 years of age) to plan their retirement; instead, they are more likely to remain in the workforce permanently to compensate for the additional costs. However, the NRPS provides a greater incentive for older workers (those 60 years of age and older) to plan their retirement than if there was no scheme. This result is particularly relevant for older unhealthy workers with a longer subjective life expectancy. We also find evidence that mental health status is key for the effectiveness of the policy.