Predictive stochastic programming

Several emerging applications call for a fusion of statistical learning and stochastic programming (SP). We introduce a new class of models which we refer to as Predictive Stochastic Programming (PSP). Unlike ordinary SP, PSP models work with datasets which represent random covariates, often refered to as predictors (or features) and responses (or labels) in the machine learning literature. As a result, these PSP models call for methodologies which borrow relevant concepts from both learning and optimization. We refer to such a methodology as Learning Enabled Optimization (LEO). This paper sets forth the foundation for such a framework by introducing several novel concepts such as statistical optimality, hypothesis tests for model-fidelity, generalization error of PSP, and finally, a non-parametric methodology for model selection . These new concepts, which are collectively referred to as LEO, provide a formal framework for modeling, solving, validating, and reporting solutions for PSP models. We illustrate the LEO framework by applying it to a production-marketing coordination model based on combining a pedagogical production planning model with an advertising dataset intended for sales prediction.