Anticipating farmer outcomes of three genetically modified staple crops in sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from farming systems research

Conventional ex-ante evaluations rely on a mix of economic, environmental, and social indicators to assess the potential impacts of Genetically Modified (GM) crops prior to their commercial release. While these predictive studies have produced useful knowledge, they have also consistently overestimated the ex-post outcomes of GM crops for African smallholder farmers. Yet these same assessment methods remain the dominant approach to project farmer outcomes for a new suite of soon-to-be commercialized GM staple crops. The research presented in this paper offers a different evaluative approach for these new GM crops by taking inspiration from farming systems research (FSR). We use the conceptual starting point of FSR scholarship—the farming system—to conduct an exploratory predictive analysis of three GM crops currently in the experimental pipeline: Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) in Kenya, disease-resistant matooke banana in Uganda, and Bt cowpea in Burkina Faso. Our findings suggest that the lofty projected benefits of these crops are unlikely to be realized by many, if not most, smallholder farmers due to incongruences with the farming systems they are designed to benefit. This research demonstrates the importance of using farming system-based evaluation methods to better anticipate likely farm-level outcomes of new breeding technologies. •Conventional ex-ante evaluations of new GM varieties are too restrictive and narrow.•Farming Systems Research can be used to anticipate farm-level outcomes.•New GM varieties are unlikely to improve livelihoods for smallholder farmers.