Prognostic model for bacterial drug resistance genes horizontal spread in space-crews

Here we present a prognostic model of horizontal spread of bacterial drug resistance genes in spacecraft crews. The model takes into account the value of gene transfer frequency during conjugation and mobilization of plasmids, adjusted for its variability under the influence of space flight factors, the frequency of occurrence and concentration of microbial communities, which form a pool for the propagation of antibiotic resistance genes in space flight. To develop a phenomenological model of antibiotic resistance, two stages of a scientific experiment were carried out. The first stage consisted of identifying the biotope of the nasopharynx of cosmonauts participating in the Salyut-7 space program and the number of antibiotic resistance determinants in bacteria identified in nasopharynx. The second stage of the experiment was carried out on the Russian Segment of the International Space Station and consisted in determining the values of mobilization and conjugation in space flight conditions, under normal conditions on Earth and in post-flight research. In these investigations the archive data was chosen, since while Salyut flights only few visiting crew missions were undertaken, so the flights were mostly isolated and because of that were more likely as planned interplanetary missions and thus are of most our interest. The phenomenological model, based on the experiments, made it possible to predict a multiple decrease in antibiotic resistance in space conditions, against the background of increased resistance of R-plasmids. •The model of bacterial antibiotic resistance AR in isolated spaces has been created.•The model takes into account the processes of plasmid conjugation, mobilization.•The model was used AR of microflora under the space conditions (USSR-Salyut 7).•It was shown that AR of bacteria in space is 2.6 less than on Earth’s conditions.