Multivariate empirical mode decomposition based hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting

Accurate day-ahead peak load forecasting is crucial not only for power dispatching but also has a great interest to investors and energy policy maker as well as government. Literature reveals that 1% error drop of forecast can reduce 10 million pounds operational cost. Thus, this study proposed a no...

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Veröffentlicht in:Energy (Oxford) 2022-01, Vol.239, p.122245, Article 122245
Hauptverfasser: Huang, Yanmei, Hasan, Najmul, Deng, Changrui, Bao, Yukun
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Accurate day-ahead peak load forecasting is crucial not only for power dispatching but also has a great interest to investors and energy policy maker as well as government. Literature reveals that 1% error drop of forecast can reduce 10 million pounds operational cost. Thus, this study proposed a novel hybrid predictive model built upon multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) and support vector regression (SVR) with parameters optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO), which is able to capture precise electricity peak load. The novelty of this study mainly comes from the application of MEMD, which enables the multivariate data decomposition to effectively extract inherent information among relevant variables at different time frequency during the deterioration of multivariate over time. Two real-world load data sets from the New South Wales (NSW) and the Victoria (VIC) in Australia have been considered to verify the superiority of the proposed MEMD-PSO-SVR hybrid model. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed, and the results indicate that the proposed MEMD-PSO-SVR method is a promising alternative for day-ahead electricity peak load forecasting. •Day-ahead peak load forecasting is implemented with multiple input variables.•A novel hybrid method has been proposed based on MEMD-PSO-SVR.•MEMD approach in multivariate data decomposition prevents information loss.•PSO is utilized to optimize the SVR parameters.•Power planer can use this new hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting.
ISSN:0360-5442
1873-6785
DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2021.122245