Assessment of Potential Phytoplankton Transformations of Large Rivers of Eastern Siberia in Response to Global Climate Change

Predictive modeling of phytoplankton transformation in large East Siberian rivers in response to global climate changes was performed. Artificial neural networks and the space-for-time substitution approach have been applied to our analysis. As a result, we determined that, under the trend towards an increase in the ice-free period on subarctic rivers, the likely response of planktonic algae communities will be (1) an increase in the phytoplankton abundance and risk of “algal bloom,” (2) an increase in the number of species due to invasions, (3) a decrease in the phytoplankton cell size, and (4) reduction in the number of monotypic taxa in the flora. The aquatic ecosystems of the rivers studied by us are still largely non-impact. This allowed us to evaluate the effect of climate change on phytoplankton, rather than local anthropogenic factors.