Analysis of environment‐recruitment associations for a coastal red drum population reveals consistent link between year class strength and early shifts in nearshore winds

The identification of factors contributing to strong year classes of marine fishes has been a constant goal toward a mechanistic understanding of recruitment variability. Here, we explored a 26‐year time series of the abundance of early juvenile red drum along the North Carolina coast to identify environmental features associated with variable recruitment success. The study location was near the northern edge of the species latitudinal range, and we hypothesized that consistent environmental forcing would be linked to the formation of strong red drum year classes. Patterns of variability in seasonal environmental features were disaggregated into multiple forms of temporal periodicity and analyzed using generalized additive models. We also contrasted patterns of environmental variation that occurred during the strongest recruitment events with those coinciding with the weakest red drum year classes. The early shift, during August, to favorable wind conditions was the most consistent environmental feature associated with red drum recruitment success. The combined duration and magnitude of N and NE winds during August of strong recruitment years was nearly double the level observed during weak recruitment years. Elevated nearshore sea surface temperatures early in the spawning season were also found to occur during years that produced strong year classes. Coastal productivity, indexed using chlorophyll a concentration, was positively associated with red drum recruitment, but also highlighted the need for more spatially resolved productivity data. Our findings highlight the importance of environment‐recruitment linkages for marine fishes, especially near distributional boundaries where conditions to promote year class success can be brief.