Suggestions for Revegetation over the Next 30 Years Based on Precipitation in the Three North Region of China

Afforestation in the Three North Region (TNR) of China has received wide concern due to the low survival rate and threats to water security associated with the lack of available precipitation for vegetation. It is crucial to provide a spatial layout for revegetation according to the available precipitation to achieve the vegetation cover target. This study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation, determined the suitable vegetation distribution based on the ecological water requirements and precipitation, and proposed an optimized revegetation scheme by comparing the actual and suitable vegetation patterns. The results indicated that the actual vegetation that matched the pixel-level precipitation accounted for 67.24% of the total vegetation area in the TNR. However, 18.50% of the actual forest, 21.82% of the actual shrublands, and 19.95% of the actual grasslands were overloaded with respect to precipitation. The total suitable vegetation area was reduced slightly compared to the actual vegetation area. There is still some potential for the revegetation of forest and shrublands, mainly those in the eastern and south-eastern parts of the TNR. The optimized revegetation area in the TNR was 3.04 × 106 km2, including a maintenance management type of 2.19 × 106 km2, an upgrade type of 0.49 × 106 km2, and a degradation type of 0.37 × 106 km2. Maintenance management (natural restoration) and transformation to vegetation types with lower ecological water requirements were recognized as important revegetation practices in the TNR. This study provides guidelines to adjust the Three North Shelterbelt Project policies based on precipitation data to reduce the negative impact of revegetation on the hydrological cycle.