Estimating Risk Perception Effects on Courier Companies’ Online Customer Behavior during a Crisis, Using Crowdsourced Data

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has proven to be a real challenge for courier companies on a global scale and has affected customer behavior worldwide. This paper attempts to propound a new methodology in order to predict the effect of courier companies’ e-commerce on customers’ risk perception regarding their online behavior after the outbreak, and the final effect of their behavior on the global ranking of the company’s website, utilizing passive crowdsourcing data from five world-leading courier companies as representative examples of their respective business sectors. The results will allow supply chain risk management (SCRM) managers to make effective strategic decisions regarding the efficient allocation of resources to mitigate the corporate risk to their organization during a novel crisis. In our paper, we monitored five key performance indicators (KPIs) over a 24-month period (March 2019–February 2021) as the first of a suggested three-level analysis process using statistical analysis and fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques. We propose that courier service companies should manage the risk of a potential novel crisis by improving the reputation and brand name of the company, since customers tend to trust an established brand.