The impact of political relations on international trade: China–Philippines island dispute as a quasi‐natural experiment

In May 2012, with tensions over Huangyan Island taking an increasingly sour turn, China released a document to strengthen inspection and quarantine of fruits imported from the Philippines. To many, this retaliation implied that the former launched economic sanctions against the latter over the growing conflict. As such, this paper takes that tension as a quasi‐natural experiment to examine the impact of deteriorating political relations on trade. We employ difference‐in‐difference to conduct an empirical investigation by using the monthly data of the Philippines’ fruit export. The estimation results show that after the implementation of the document, in comparison with other export destination countries, Philippine banana and pineapple exports to China decreased by 42% and 88%, respectively. However, the sanction effects weakened over time. Extended analyses also find that the Philippines evaded the sanctions to some extent by trans‐shipping through third countries, transferring exports to other countries, and deeply processing fruits. In conclusion, the sanctions were not as effective as expected.