Predictors of Urban Principal Turnover

Research indicates that principal turnover is increasing and urban districts are struggling to retain their principals. This study used multiple regression analysis to examine seven independent variables and their relationship to principal turnover in Colorado urban schools. This study used longitudinal data from the Colorado Department of Education from 2010-2015. The findings indicate that the percentage of students of color is the only variable predictive of principal turnover, with a higher percentage of students of color in a school resulting in higher principal turnover. In addition, Colorado urban schools experience a change in leadership every 2.5 years and only 23.70% of principals stay at the same school for 5 years. The findings suggest there is an opportunity to reenvision principal retention practices, with an emphasis on schools with a high percentage of students of color.