An operational framework for communicating flood warnings to indigenous farmers in southern Nigeria: a systems thinking analysis

In March 2012, the Nigerian meteorological agency forecasted massive flooding for parts of the country, with the displacement of large parts of the population as a consequence. Delta State in southern Nigeria was earmarked as a region expected to be adversely affected by the anticipated flood. Despite the Nigerian Emergency Management Agency (NEMA)—which is tasked with disaster management—sending out early warnings, the flood wreaked devastating havoc in most rural communities in the Delta State. In this regard, this article seeks to highlight the reasons why indigenous farmers in the Delta State were adversely affected by the flood despite timely early warnings. Primary data were obtained from respondents in Igbide, Uzere, and Olomoro communities using group discussions and semi-structured interviews. Also, open-ended questionnaires were administered to agricultural extension officers in the aforementioned communities. Using systems thinking analysis, NEMA’s inability to utilize indigenous communication channels was a major factor that contributed to the failure of early warnings to trigger proactive behaviors. With increased flood episodes anticipated to become the new normal in southern Nigeria by 2050, this article conceptualizes a framework for communicating flood warnings to indigenous farmers in the Delta State by building on shortcomings of the 2012 flood warnings. In so doing, this article contributes to the discourse on effective ways of communicating weather warnings to indigenous farmers in developing countries.