Rainfall forecasting using PSPline and rice production with ocean-atmosphere interaction

The role of climate can be affected by plants. The weather can accelerate and multiply the existence of various plant pests and diseases, accelerate the growth and development of grass among plants, and encourage the emergence of infection and significant damage to plants. The elements of climate that affect the growth of plants are one of them is rainfall. In this paper, we performed the simulation using the non-parametric penalized spline (PSPLINE) method and studied the effect on rice production in Lampung. It can be concluded that the increasing fluctuation, frequency, and intensity of climate anomalies in the last decade caused by the ENSO phenomenon have an impact on changes in distribution patterns, intensity, and period of the wet season so that the start of the rainy season and the dry season becomes too late. As a result, there is a seasonal shift from normal average conditions that can ultimately have severe implications for food crops. In a nutshell penalized spline gives high accuracy with R2 = 96.227% and MAPE = 1.62%.