Developing the role of modelling in the teaching and learning of probability

We examine the challenges of teaching probability through the use of modelling. We argue how an integrated modelling approach might facilitate a coordinated understanding of distribution by marrying theoretical and data-oriented perspectives and present probability as more connected to the social lives of modern-day students. Research is, however, also showing that learning modelling is non-trivial. For example, students can easily be confused between real-world data and model-generated data. Furthermore, students tend to create models that reflect the structure of the problem context rather than its mathematical structure. The argument we present is that teaching probability through an integrated modelling approach could offer important educational benefits, but this would be an immense challenge to the skills and knowledge of teachers and would demand increased levels of resources for teacher development. The implication is that research needs to identify suitable forms of teacher development and designs for tasks and curricula.