Presumptions in Vertical Mergers: The Role of Evidence

Vertical mergers have attracted much attention in recent years. We assess the role of presumptions and likelihoods in vertical merger analysis and guidelines. We focus in particular on the role that we believe statistical evidence in general—and retrospective analyses more specifically—should play in determining presumptions. We also discuss how horizontal merger guidelines provide frameworks to analyze the horizontal issues that can be associated with vertical mergers. We conclude that while some vertical mergers may raise concerns, the evidence at this point does not provide sufficient guidance to develop presumptions that are related to strictly vertical issues.