Connecting protected areas in the Iberian peninsula to facilitate climate change tracking

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to preserve natural places, aiming to sustain ecosystem functionality and preserve biodiversity. However, PAs are spatially static, while major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, are dynamic. The climatic conditions represented in a PA could vanish in the future and appear in other places more or less far away from the PA; these places could be considered as recipient areas potentially suited to receive propagules from the source PAs, which tend to lose the climatic conditions that motivated their protection. This study estimates the current and future climatic representativeness of mainland Iberian national parks by identifying future areas with a similar climate to those existing now in the parks and taking into account the degree of anthropogenic alteration and protection. We identify a network of ecological corridors connecting Iberian national parks with their recipient areas, as well as discriminating those most conflicting areas that impede network connectivity due to their degree of land-use transformation. Our results identify important areas for maintaining the climatic representativeness of Iberian national parks in the future, showing a substantial reduction in the climatic representativeness of the Iberian national parks. Although most of the recipient areas now have forest and semi-natural land uses and more than half of their whole area has protected status, current land uses in the Iberian Peninsula severely obstruct the corridor network connecting the parks and recipient areas.