Spatio-temporal differentiation of ecological carrying capacity of the protected area: A case study of Jinshitan in Dalian

Monitoring the ecological carrying capacity of nature reserves is of great significance to understand its spatio-temporal differentiation and sustainable development. Jinshitan Geoheritage Reserve is a combination area of national park and scenic spot. It is a place where contradictions and conflicts exist between ecological protection and regional development. It is also a typical representative area of multi-status nature reserves. Based on the remote sensing data and the land use data of 1998, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2018, this paper selects Jinshitan, a nature reserve with multiple functions of protection and development, as the research area. An evaluation system of ecological carrying capacity is constructed from three aspects: elastic ecological support, resource and environment capacity, and socio-economic coordination. We evaluate the spatial and temporal difference of the ecological carrying capacity of Jinshitan by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results show that:(1) in the three criteria layers, the elastic ecological support force and the capacity of resources and environment show a sharp downward trend, while the social and economic coordination force shows a trend of decreasing first, then increasing, and developing steadily.(2) The ecological carrying capacity of Jinshitan has changed from high to low. From 0.7572 to 0.2940 from 1998 to 2018, the carrying capacity level has decreased in recent 30 years.(3) The ecological carrying capacity of sea and land is totally different, the land is high, and the coast is low. The coastal area is gradually weakened from the north land to the south coast, showing extremely unbalanced spatial differentiation of sea and land. Through the analysis of ecological carrying capacity of Jinshitan from 1998 to 2018, it can reflect the changes in the ecological carrying capacity of the region, provide reference for the ecological carrying capacity assessment and sustainable development of other nature reserves.