Predictive maintenance for multi-component systems of repairables with Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics and a limited stock of spare components

Aircraft maintenance is undergoing a paradigm shift towards predictive maintenance, where the use of sensor data and Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics are central. This paper proposes an integrated approach for predictive aircraft maintenance planning for multiple multi-component systems, where the components are repairables. First, model-based Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics are developed. These prognostics are updated over time, as more sensor data become available. Then, a rolling horizon integer linear program is developed for the maintenance planning of multiple multi-component systems. This model integrates the Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics with the management of a limited stock of spare repairable components. The maintenance of the multiple systems is linked through the availability of spare components and shared maintenance time slots. Our approach is illustrated for a fleet of aircraft, each equipped with a Cooling System consisting of four Cooling Units. For an aircraft to be operational, a minimum of two Cooling Units out of the four need to be operational. The maintenance planning results show that our integrated approach reduces the costs with maintenance by 48% relative to a corrective maintenance strategy and by 30% relative to a preventive maintenance strategy. Moreover, using predictive maintenance, components are replaced in anticipation of failure without wasting their useful life. In general, our approach provides a roadmap from Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics to maintenance planning for multiple multi-component systems of repairables with a limited stock of spares. •Model-based Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics for aircraft Cooling Units are developed.•A predictive maintenance planning model is developed for multiple multi-component systems.•The planning model integrates RUL prognostics with the management of a limited stock of repairable spare components.•A case study on the maintenance of repairable aircraft Cooling Units is conducted.•Predictive maintenance planning is shown to outperform corrective and preventive maintenance.