An investigation of the influence of economic cycles on safety performance in Western Australia

•Occupational injuries impacted by economic cycles in Western Australia.•Safety management systems should be built to be resilient to economic changes.•Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 have triggered economic changes.•Organisations are required to ensure workforce is safe at all times. This study examined the influence of economic cycles on safety performance in Western Australia. A secondary analysis of 577,778 occupational injuries reported to WorkCover (Western Australia) from 2003 to 2019, was undertaken. Changes to occupational injury rates were compared to fluctuations in macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Economic indicators were compared to injury rates in the industry groups: agriculture, mining, manufacturing and construction, to determine if these industries are more sensitive to changes in economic cycles. Results of multiple linear regression analysis provided evidence of a procyclical trend of occupational injury rates. Macroeconomic analysis for industry groups revealed an association of occupational injury rates with changes in economic cycles for manufacturing and construction, whereby as unemployment increases occupational injuries decrease. Microeconomic factors showed that occupational injuries in mining, manufacturing and construction were strongly associated with changes to economic cycles. During economic growth, mining and construction occupational injury rates decreased and manufacturing occupational injury rates increased. Manufacturing injury rates were more sensitive to changes in economic cycles. This study shows that economic cycles influence occupational injury rates using Western Australia data. Organisations which do not design their injury prevention strategies to be resilient to economic changes such as those brought on by the Global Financial Crisis and COVID19 may be surprised by a reduction in their effectiveness, as there is a legal obligation to maintain a safe workplace at all times.