Evaluation of village land use planning risks in green concepts: The case of Qiwangfen Village in Beijing

Compared with the rapid progress of urbanization in China, rural development is being hampered by a series of problems, including the destruction of cultivated land, the decline of villages, and ecological pollution. One of the reasons for this is flawed land use planning at the village level, which often ignores the risks inherent in changes to land use when such planning is implemented, as well as possible future risks associated with the implementation process. These risks can be called village land use planning risks (VLUPRs). Neglecting VLUPRs can cause serious land use problems, such as low efficiency, conflict, and ecological damage. These factors prevent village-level land use planning from meeting the green requirements of efficiency, harmony, and sustainability. However, current research has focused on the specific risks related to land use planning and it lacks systematic consideration of risks inherent to the integral process of land use planning. This implies that in current research, more attention is being paid to maximizing the benefits rather than minimizing the risks in planning optimization. To bridge this gap, we introduced a green concept, which includes efficiency, harmony, and sustainability, as well as developing an evaluation framework for selecting an optimal program of land use planning with minimum VLUPRs at the village level. We used Qiwangfen Village in Beijing as a case study to demonstrate the empirical implementation of this framework. Our analysis showed that the model could help to limit the risks and provide guidance in selecting the most secure land use planning approach. As the proposed framework balances efficiency, harmony, and sustainability, it can be considered a useful tool for local governments to implement the “Rural Vitalization Strategy” while ensuring that green development is realized in rural areas, particularly with respect to rural land use. •Green concepts applied in framework of village land use planning risks (VLUPRs).•Risks of expected planning results and implementation considered comprehensively.•Proposed optimal method of planning programs based on risk aversion.