Quantifying seed germination based on thermal models to predict global climate change impacts on Cerrado species

Seed germination is regulated by temperature and can thus be quantified by thermal models, which can predict germination occurrence in biomes and plant survival under possible climate change scenarios. The objective of this study was to quantify germination based on thermal time and survival risk of 14 species in the Brazilian Cerrado in scenarios of future climate change. Seeds were collected in the warmer regions of the Cerrado, central Brazil, placed in incubators to germinate at constant temperatures of 10–50°C and evaluated every hour or day. Germination rate (R50), time for germination of 50% of the seeds (T50) and dent-like function were used to determine cardinal temperatures. Thermal time parameters were estimated using the Weibull model. Seed germination forecasts were made based on the International Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) scenarios of global temperature increase. Base temperatures (Tb) ranged from 3.5 to 16.5°C, maximum temperatures (Tmax) from 35 to 50°C and optimum temperatures (To) from 30 to 35°C. Estimated thermal time varied from 484°C h to 400°C d at sub-optimal temperatures and 108°C h at 126°C d at supra-optimal temperatures. Species more distributed showed a higher thermal range of germination and are less susceptible to extinction in temperature increase scenarios. The results of this study suggest that seeds that are non-dormant after dispersal may be the most vulnerable in the future. In this context, our predictions contribute to understand how the survival of trees and shrubs will be affected in the Cerrado in the future.