SOUTHEAST ASIA IN 2020: Economic and Social Hardship, and Strategic Strain

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic hit Southeast Asian states hard. From a health perspective, the region has managed the pandemic comparatively well, with fewer reported cases and deaths as a percentage of the population than other parts of the world. But measures applied to stem the spread of the disease have caused a deep economic contraction in the region, seen rises in unemployment and poverty, strained already fragile governmental institutions, and in some cases created political instability. Enhanced US presence in the region will mean a more comprehensive and sustained pushback against China. This is inherently unsettling for smaller states, but will present opportunities for forward-leaning and proactive Southeast Asian nations to work with the US and for countries such as Japan and Australia to impose greater constraints and even impose calculated costs on coercive or destabilizing Chinese behavior.