How does the rural settlement transition contribute to shaping sustainable rural development? Evidence from Shandong, China

Rural settlements, a type of rural locality where residents live and engage in production, always face significant changes and transitions when meeting the demands of rural development. By applying an integrated framework, we developed a new way to quantify the rural settlement transition (RST) through analysis of the interaction between population movements and land use changes and identification of the coupling relationship between the RST and rural development. This study revealed the dynamic process of the RST by calculating the per capita rural settlement area (PCRA) based on samples collected from 1996 to 2016 in Shandong Province. Our findings show that the rural population first decreased and then reached a relatively stable state, whereas the area of rural settlements experienced a rapid decline after a short increase in Shandong. However, the spatial patterns of rural population and rural settlements are similar to each other. In terms of the spatiotemporal characteristics of the RST, the PCRA shifted from growth to reduction in different periods and showed a spatially increasing tendency from downtown areas to suburban areas and then to exurban areas. The coupling relationship between the RST and rural development changed from extensive to intensive development during the process of urbanization. The coordinated interaction between the rural population movement and land use changes contributed to the sustainable RST as well as to rural development. Based on these findings, this paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy, arguing that the land consolidation and integrated urban-rural land use planning derived from the RST should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as viable strategies for achieving sustainable rural development targets. •Population movement and land use change have jointly promoted the rural settlement transition (RST).•RST can be measured from the perspective of human-landscape interaction.•The per capita rural settlement area (PCRA) index shifted from growth to reduction.•The coupling relationship between the RST and rural development changed from extensive to intensive pattern during the urbanization process.•Land consolidation and integrated urban-rural land use planning are viable strategies for achieving rural sustainability.