Possible impact of equatorially trapped waves on the tropical cyclone drift

The effect of equatorially trapped waves on the movement of tropical cyclones (TC) is studied numerically based on a two-dimensional barotropic model in a beta-plane approximation. According to recent studies, equatorially trapped waves contribute to the genesis of TCs. It is thus natural to assume that these waves affect also the movement of the TC. The effect of three types of equatorially trapped waves, namely Kelvin, Rossby, and n = 0 eastward inertio-Gravity (EIG) waves, on the TC trajectory is investigated with a focus on the sensitivity on some key physical parameters such as the wavenumber and wavespeed. Using a simple barotropic model forced by a prescribed baroclinic flow, the barotropic response to equatorially trapped waves is simulated for a period of 50 days, under various wave parameter configurations. This response is then used as a background flow where TC’s can evolve and propagate. TC-like flows are injected into this wavefield background at arbitrary times during the simulation, and the TC trajectories are tracked and recorded for 48h after the injection time. The resulting TC trajectory patterns with respect to the injection times and wave parameters appear to be stochastic and the mean paths and the associated standard deviations are calculated and reported here. The statistics are different for different wave types. Kelvin waves make shorter length of TC trajectories and small divergence of direction. On the contrary, Rossby waves cause rather dramatic changes in the TC path and yield longer trajectories. Meanwhile, TCs in EIG waves maintain fairly the same direction and typically have longer trajectories though less dramatic. A robustness test using a random forcing instead has also been conducted.