Spatio-temporal difference evolution and scenario simulation of multi-dimensional well-being in Poyang Lake area based on system dynamics

Under sustainable development guidance, it′s a significant trend that well-being is measured by multiple dimensions based on the capital perspective. In this paper, we build a multi-dimensional well-being index from the capital perspective. Then, by using the Gini coefficient and spatial autocorrelation method, we analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of multi-dimensional well-being index in 38 districts and counties of the Poyang Lake area from 2006 to 2018. We also use the method of system dynamics to simulate the changing situation of the Poyang Lake area′s well-being system under different development situations. We found that(1) From 2006 to 2018, the level of multi-dimensional well-being in the Poyang Lake area improved significantly. The sustainable development model that coordinated the human capital, economic capital, social capital, and natural capital is the best way to develop Poyang Lake area′s well-being. The well-being index of Yugan County, Jiujiang County, Duchang County, Lushan city is always low, but these counties′ growth rate is higher than that in other countries. The area of Low-Low agglomeration is reducing significantly with the analysis of spatial autocorrelation.(2) Under different scenarios, the Poyang Lake area′s well-being index improved significantly, and synergic development mode among human capital, economic capital, social capital and natural capital is the best way about the development of Poyang Lake area. The investment of social capital and human capital is the most effective way to improve the Poyang Lake area′s well-being in a short time. While economic capital is an inexhaustible driving force for the long-term development of the well-being. The development of Poyang Lake area should focus on the driving role of the high well-being countries and increase the growth rate of well-being in low well-being areas. And it also needs to foster economic capital and strengthen the synergies among the four capitals to achieve equilibrium and long-term development. In this way, it can help to solve the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people′s ever-growing needs for a better life.