A system dynamics approach for basin policy design: Urmia lake case study

Purpose Urmia lake water has impressively decreased recently and seriously endangered the lives of the inhabitants. In this paper, the effects of various factors on the reduction of the lake water are investigated and appropriate scenarios are proposed for future improvement. Due to the significant impact of agricultural issues on this crisis, this paper has focused specifically on agriculture. So, this paper aims to forecast and improve the lake water level. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, a system dynamics (SD) model, which is capable to consider various parameters and variables affecting the lake water level within nonlinear and dynamic relations, is developed. Findings To show the effectiveness of SD model, real data are used to run the model and the results show that the actual behavior of the lake water is reproduced with high validation (around 98.28 per cent). Also, five different scenarios are proposed to increase lake water volume. The hybrid Scenario 5 (which combines three other scenarios including increasing irrigation efficiency in the agricultural sector, changing cultivation pattern of agricultural products and returning some dams’ water that are consumed in the agricultural sector into the lake) is chosen as the most effective scenario for increasing lake volume about 15 billion m3. Originality/value The main contributions of this paper are systemic view to the whole problem, paying attention to the agriculture subject as one of the most important issues, considering many critical variables (e.g. evaporation, salinity and precipitation) and providing improvement policies along with assessing the effects of them.