An Integrated Framework to Estimate Seabird Population Numbers and Trends

Generating trend and population estimates from bird count data is challenging and a variety of factors have to be taken into account. We present an integrative statistical approach for estimating population numbers and trends for seabirds at sea. The method allows for the integration of bird-count data from different sources and sampling schemes: offshore observer-based line transect and digital strip transect surveys and landbased point counts; the estimation of log-linear and highly nonlinear trends; the prediction of population numbers for predefined sub-areas, years, or seasons; and investigations of the effects of various environmental and detection-related covariates on bird count numbers. We applied the approach to count data for great black-backed gulls (Larus marinus) in the German part of the North Sea and Baltic Sea from 1990–2016. Count data were collected by observer-based offshore ship and aerial surveys, offshore digital aerial surveys, and point counts from the shore. The detectability of great black-backed gulls was affected by the sea state (the condition of the sea surface, characterized by wave height, wave form, foam, and spray) and survey method. Digital and observerbased aerial surveys detected only 59–77% of the abundance recorded by ship-based surveys. Great black-backed gulls are mainly present in German waters in winter, when they account for 3–4% of the European population. Their core distributional areas are mainly in deeper offshore waters where they are relatively dispersed, with several concentrations probably connected to fishing activity. Great black-backed gulls have undergone substantial declines, with the most pronounced decreases of >90% in the offshore waters of the German part of the North Sea. Breeding numbers at important European breeding sites do not show similar declines, suggesting that the trends observed in the sea areas might indicate a shift in the distribution or habitat use and a decreasing importance of marine areas for European great black-backed gulls.