Regional Growth Paths and Resilience: A European Analysis

Research highlighting the differential resilience of economies to shocks opens up the possibility that long-run growth paths are associated with how regions cope with and recover from such shocks. To date, however, there has been limited exploration into whether long-run evolutionary growth paths or trajectories influence regional economic resilience and what types of trajectories might be more associated with resilience. This article explores the connections between regional economic resilience and regional and national growth trajectories by utilizing a novel set of methods to group regions according to the similarity of their growth paths, identifying the relative importance of national growth for regional growth, and categorizing regions according to their resilience to the 2007-2008 economic crisis. The results suggest that regions have empirically identifiable long-run and path-dependent development trajectories that are significantly associated with industrial employment shares and observed resilience outcomes. Critically, however, these regional growth paths are significantly shaped by national trajectories. Furthermore, regions with greater employment shares in sectors that are less susceptible to demand fluctuations are likely to experience more stable growth rates and be more resilient to economic downturns. This has implications for understanding the importance of evolutionary trends and specifically the role of national contexts and industrial legacies in shaping regional resilience.