MSW in a Circular Economy: 2020 - 2035 Scenarios for the City of Oslo, Norway

The unfolding of Circular Economy principles will have consequences on the generation rate, amount, and composition of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) as well as the preferred methods to treat them. In this work, four plausible scenarios on the future of MSW for the period 2020 – 2035 have been developed for the City of Oslo, Norway. The scenario’s consequences on (1) MSW amounts and properties and (2) the treatment methods, i.e. Waste-to-Energy (WtE), material recycling and biogas production have been evaluated. The main results can be summarized as such: (1) the evolution of both population and consumption (i.e. waste generated per inhabitant) will have a large impact; (2) meeting EU material recovery target (65% for MSW in 2035) means that several waste fractions have to be recycled at high levels, and this will be challenging without significant logistical and/or treatment capacity changes and/or technological breakthroughs, (3) in 2 out of 4 scenarios, the biogas production capacity must be expanded with a new plant to reach the 65% recovery target, (4) a “business as usual” approach is not sufficient to reach the recovery targets, (5) the combustion properties of MSW to WtE will be affected by increasing recycling, probably towards lower energy contents and higher ash contents and (6) “what-if scenario” studies should be carried out at the city/regional level as specific constraints must be included to bring valuable information.