Comment on “Ensemble Averaging and the Curse of Dimensionality”

To paraphrase my interpretation of these conditions, if individual simulators are tuned more on their overall bias than their large pixel errors, then we would expect the MMM to outperform all ensemble members, when the number of pixels is large. [...]the joint distribution of all k + 1 RMSEs is ver...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of climate 2018-11, Vol.31 (21), p.9015-9016
1. Verfasser: Rougier, Jonathan
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:To paraphrase my interpretation of these conditions, if individual simulators are tuned more on their overall bias than their large pixel errors, then we would expect the MMM to outperform all ensemble members, when the number of pixels is large. [...]the joint distribution of all k + 1 RMSEs is very complicated, and the distribution of the rank of the MMM RMSE among the ensemble RMSEs even more so, the rank being a highly nonlinear function. [...]order exchangeability analysis for multimodel ensembles. [...]order exchangeability analysis for multimodel ensembles.J. [...]order exchangeability analysis for multimodel ensembles.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0274.1