Boosting the EU forest-based bioeconomy: Market, climate, and employment impacts

•The forest-based sector is key to the development of the EU bioeconomy.•We assess impacts of increased wood use in construction and for chemicals and fuels.•We evaluate scenarios as to climate change mitigation, employment and wood markets.•Analysis reveals synergies and trade-offs between various uses of forest resources.•Results underscore the need for concerted international climate change mitigation. This study adds to the scientific literature dealing with the climate change mitigation implications of wood substitution. Its main scientific contribution rests with the modelling approach. By fully integrating forest resource and wood-product markets modelling in quantitative scenario analysis, we account for international trade in wood products as well as impacts on EU forests and forest-based sector employment of an increased EU uptake of wood-based construction and/or biochemicals and biofuels. Our results confirm the crucial role of the sawmilling industry in the forest-based bioeconomy. Thus, boosting wood-based construction in the EU would be most effective in increasing EU production and employment—in logging and solid wood-products manufacturing, but also in sectors using sawmilling byproducts as feedstock. Vertical integration in wood-based biorefineries should thus be advantageous. The positive EU climate-change mitigation effects of increased carbon storage in harvested wood products (HWP) and material substitution from increased wood construction are more than offset by reduced net forests carbon sinks by 2030, due to increased EU harvests. Further, increased EU imports, resulting in lower consumption of sawnwood outside the EU, would reduce extra-EU long-life HWP carbon storage and substitution of GHG-intensive materials, highlighting the need for concerted international climate change mitigation. [Display omitted]