Opportunity or threat in balancing social, economic and environmental impacts: The appearance of the Polar Silk Road

The potential of the Polar Silk Road (PSR) to accelerate the shipping trade is gaining importance because sea ice is currently melting in the Arctic region. Economic growth generates negative environmental and social impacts (TBL aspects); however, only a few studies have discussed the opportunities and threats in balancing TBL aspects. To fill this knowledge gap, this study addresses the opportunities and threats presented by the PSR. Nevertheless, information on the PSR is spread across diverse databases and is incomplete. This study utilizes a data-driven approach to handle these diverse databases and incomplete information and thereby to provide visual two- and three-dimensional impact analyses of opportunities and threats. This study contributes to the literature by (1) bridging TBL aspects of the PSR, (2) using a proposed hybrid method to address the aspect-balancing problem, and (3) providing insights on the opportunities and threats of the PSR. The results reveal negative effects of the PSR in terms of the balance between the economic and environmental aspects and that between the economic and social aspects. This study confirms that the scale and speed of development of the PSR pose a challenge to the environmental and social standards upheld by the surrounding countries and regions. Russia and the United Kingdom are ranked first and second in upholding these standards, while Germany, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands and Norway strive to achieve a balance between the economic, social and environmental aspects. •This study examines the Polar Silk Road (PSR) feasibility to accelerate the shipping trade.•Few study takes Triple-Bottom-Line (TBL) involvement in balancing PSR sustainability.•This study utilizes a data-driven with a multi criteria decision-making method.•There is a negative on the economic-environmental and social-economic aspects.•Russia and United Kingdom are ranked first and second in overall TBL performance.