Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?

Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?

We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common pr...

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Veröffentlicht in:Advances in applied probability 2021-03, Vol.53 (1), p.133-161
Hauptverfasser: Burdzy, Krzysztof, Pal, Soumik
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Sprache:eng
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Decision theory
Information sources
Original Article
Original Articles
Probability
Random variables
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Pal, Soumik
description We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. The optimizer for the bound is explicitly described. This paper was originally titled ‘Contradictory predictions’.
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subjects Decision theory
Information sources
Original Article
Original Articles
Probability
Random variables
title Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?
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