Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?
We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common pr...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Advances in applied probability 2021-03, Vol.53 (1), p.133-161 |
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Hauptverfasser: | , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. The optimizer for the bound is explicitly described. This paper was originally titled ‘Contradictory predictions’. |
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ISSN: | 0001-8678 1475-6064 |
DOI: | 10.1017/apr.2020.51 |