Southern coastal subtropical shallow lakes skin temperature driven by climatic and non-climatic factors

Subtropical coastal shallow lakes (SCSL) are sensitive ecosystems. The lake-skin-water temperature (LSWT) is an average lake temperature proxy and responds to changes in surroundings, affecting biological and physical lake processes. In this study, M*D11A1 products are used to develop daytime and nighttime LSWT time series for 20 SCSL in South America. The influence of climatic (air temperature, surface net solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction) and non-climatic (latitude, lake area, perimeter, width, length, and morphology) factors are evaluated from 2001 to 2017. Pearson’s coefficients ( ρ ) and auto- and cross-correlations are used to establish the relation between LWST and the selected factors. We identify that the dynamic of LSWT is sensitive to geomorphological factors (latitude and lake width) throughout the year, especially in summer. In winter, the LSTW regime is mainly affected by wind direction ( ρ = -0.66, p value < 0.01). Linear models are fitted to the temperature series to check the trend changes in the inflection points and the warming or cooling trend for LSWT. Considering the complete series, the maximum warming rate of LSWT is 0.25 °C per decade (°C/dec). The analysis of the identified sub-periods reveals that warming and cooling can occur (significantly) in shorter periods. The average trends within sub-periods for skin temperature-daytime (± 0.0105 °C/dec), skin temperature-nighttime (0.0041 °C/dec), and air temperature (− s0.006 °C/dec; 0.007 °C/dec) are estimated. Our approach has the potential to be applied in future studies due to the expansion of knowledge about the behavior of SCSL and the understanding of the current and potential effects of climate change in association with physical and geomorphological traits.