Sigmoid models for Covid-19 pandemic

Several static models for description of the Covid-19 pandemic are considered, analyzed and compared. The best models relative to this pandemic (generalized fractional-power model and generalized inverse tangent model) are new. These and other non-symmetric models are user friendly and show a good a...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Konstantinov, M., Konstantinov, K., Konstantinov, S.
Format: Tagungsbericht
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:Several static models for description of the Covid-19 pandemic are considered, analyzed and compared. The best models relative to this pandemic (generalized fractional-power model and generalized inverse tangent model) are new. These and other non-symmetric models are user friendly and show a good agreement with the official data for the pandemic in Europe. The best models give less than 1% error for a 20-day prediction period and less than 1.5% error for a 40-day prediction period. Recommendations for the use of the models are made. The results obtained may be used in the analysis of possible new waves of Covid-19 in different countries, in Europe and worldwide. Such waves seem more and more likely.
ISSN:0094-243X
1551-7616
DOI:10.1063/5.0041728