Storage Lifetime Prediction of Composite Solid Propellant based on Šesták‐Berggren Model

The physical and chemical properties of composite solid propellant during storage period are greatly affected by environmental factors, and the aging mechanism is complicated. In view of the insufficient utilization of test data in the current research and the low accuracy of storage lifetime evaluation model, this paper takes composite solid propellant as the object and makes use of the destructive accelerated storage test data at different temperature levels to carry out storage lifetime prediction research from the perspective of thermal analysis kinetics. Taking the key mechanical performance parameter‐tensile strength as an example, a performance degradation model based on Šesták‐Berggren model (SB(m,n)) is established, and the optimal mechanism index (m,n) is determined according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Furthermore, the evaluation methods of storage reliability, storage reliable lifetimes and their lower confidence limits are given. Finally, take a certain type of composite solid propellant as an example to verify the model and method of the paper. The results show that the storage lifetime prediction method based on the SB(m,n) model is more accurate and the prediction results are more reliable. A good idea is provided to assess the storage lifetime of composite solid propellant, and it also provides reference for other propellant and explosive storage lifetime prediction.