Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region, Brazil: 1992–2030

[Display omitted] •Dry Forest areas would increase 4.3% by assuming the Protected Forest (PF) scenario by 2030 in the Sergipe semiarid region.•Dry Forest areas would decrease 1.8% by assuming the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario by 2030 in the study region.•Carbon sequestration would increase 481.939 Mg between 2017 and 2030 by assuming the PF scenario in the study region.•Carbon sequestration would decrease 736.904 Mg in the BAU between 2017 and 2030 by assuming the BAU scenario in the study region.•Carbon sequestration would increase up to US$ 11.6 million by 2030 by assuming the PF scenario in the study region. The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km2, has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO2 sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km2. The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO2-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO2-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective act