Predicting pasture biomass using a statistical model and machine learning algorithm implemented with remotely sensed imagery

•GAM and ML models can be used as a farm-based decision support tool.•Decision support tools can be used in combination with remotely sensed imagery.•High spatio-temporal variability of pasture biomass was observed in pasture fields. Accurate daily estimates of pasture biomass can improve the profitability of pasture-based dairy system by optimising input of feed supplements and pasture utilisation. However, obtaining accurate pasture mass estimates is a laborious and time-consuming task. The aim of this study was to test the performance of an integrated method combining remote sensing imagery acquired with a multispectral camera mounted on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), statistical models (generalised additive model, GAM) and machine learning algorithms (random forest, RF) implemented with publicly available data to predict future pasture biomass loads. This study showed that using observations of pasture growth along with environmental and pasture management variables enabled both models, GAM and RF to predict the pre-grazing pasture biomass production at field scale with an average error below 20%. If predictive variables (i.e. post-grazing pasture biomass) were excluded, model performance was reduced, generating errors up to 40%. The post-grazing biomass information at high spatial resolution (