Analysis of China’s carbon emission driving factors based on the perspective of eight major economic regions

Low-carbon transition has gradually become the focus of research on environmental issues. This paper takes China’s eight major economic regions as the entry point. First, carbon emissions are measured according to United Nations’ baseline methodologies. Second, the stochastic nonparametric data envelope analysis (StoNED) model is used to measure energy efficiency to improve the accuracy of the measurement. Finally, considering the temporal and spatial nonstationarity of carbon emission data, this paper constructs geographically and temporally weighted regression-stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (GTWR-STIRPAT) model, which can accurately analyze the impact of each driving factor of carbon emissions. This paper also explores efficient emission reduction paths in conjunction with the forcing mechanism. According to the study, China’s carbon emissions show a decreasing trend from coastal areas to inland areas. In addition, there are significant problems with carbon emissions in China: some regions focus on improving energy efficiency but neglect increasing energy consumption; some regions focus on industrial development but neglect long-term emission reductions. Among the driving factors, energy efficiency, foreign trade, environmental regulations, and industrial structure have the effects of spatiotemporal heterogeneity, spatial heterogeneity, and time lag on carbon emissions, respectively. Graphical abstract