What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses

What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scottish journal of political economy 2021-02, Vol.68 (1), p.20-50
Hauptverfasser: Verevis, Samuel, Üngör, Murat
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Animals
China
Counterfactual thinking
Exports
Food
Free trade
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
New Zealand
synthetic control method
Trade agreements
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Zusammenfassung:We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.
ISSN:0036-9292
1467-9485
DOI:10.1111/sjpe.12260