Effects of phosphorus control on primary productivity and deep-water oxygenation: insights from Lake Lugano (Switzerland and Italy)

Attempts to restore Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, from eutrophication have produced weak responses in the target variables (primary productivity and hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations), indicating shortcomings in the underlying eutrophication model. An analysis of monitoring data showed that the decrease in phosphorus concentration, although nearly compliant with restoration targets, produced only slight decreases in primary productivity and no change in hypolimnetic oxygen conditions. These target variables were equally or more sensitive to factors external to trophic state, including plankton structure, which influenced primary productivity, and the depth of mixing during turnovers, which influenced hypolimnetic oxygen. To improve the chance of success, the restoration approach should revise the phosphorus concentration target and explicitly account for the influence of external variation, especially mixing depth.